For ISVs, PSPs, IBs and CTAs
The federal layer for prediction markets, in the sources’ own words. Records read Oct 16, 2026.
CFTC Staff Letter 26-25
Sep 17, 2026 · not binding on the Commission
MPD will not recommend enforcement for failure to register as an IB or AP solely for the Covered Activities of a passive software provider (a front end for event contracts and other Commission-regulated derivatives), subject to ten conditions; a Division position, not binding on the Commission.
This letter and the no-action position taken herein are not binding on the Commission. … Any different, changed or omitted material facts or circumstances might render the position taken in this letter void.The letter, cftc.gov
The ten conditions
as the letter states them
- The PSP, its principals, and any individual engaged in soliciting Users as part of the Covered Activities are not subject to statutory disqualification, absent a waiver by the Division.p. 4, condition 1
- The PSP provides, and each User acknowledges receipt of, disclosures regarding the PSP's relationship with the relevant Registrant(s), addressing potential conflicts of interest (including fees).p. 4, condition 2
- The PSP provides, and each User acknowledges receipt of, a risk disclosure statement addressing the risks covered by the risk disclosure statement contained in Commission Regulation 1.55(b), to the extent relevant to the trading activity facilitated by the PSP; the PSP retains a record of the User's acknowledgement. Not applicable where a Registrant is obligated to provide the statement.p. 4, condition 3
- Users are onboarded as direct members (for DCMs) or customers (for registered FCMs and IBs), and they continue to have the ability to access the respective Registrant independently of the PSP.p. 4, condition 4
- The PSP adopts and enforces policies and procedures reasonably designed to ensure compliance with applicable Commission and NFA rules regarding communications with the public and marketing as if the PSP were registered as an IB.pp. 4–5, condition 5
What the position does not cover
the letter, p. 6
- “At no point would the PSP hold, control, or take into custody User assets”
- “generate express "buy" or "sell" signals”
- “or exercise discretion with respect to the routing or execution of User orders”
What the letter allows the software provider to be paid
- Revenue share with the registrant: “which may also agree to share a specified portion of their relevant revenues with the PSP”
- A transaction-based fee charged directly to users: “this agreement may provide for the PSP to charge a transaction-based fee directly to Users”
The introducing-broker trigger
1983 release
“persons who are currently compensated on a per-trade basis or by a referral fee as described above would be deemed to be the 'agent' of a futures commission merchant for the purpose of the acceptance of those customer orders”
48 FR 35248, 35250 (1983), as quoted in the letter, p. 2 n. 11
The courts of appeals
three decisions, all at the injunction stage
- Third Circuit: KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (3d Cir. Apr. 6, 2026)Affirmed the preliminary injunction against New Jersey: Kalshi "has demonstrated a reasonable chance of success on its argument that the Commodity Exchange Act … preempts otherwise applicable state law".Sep 8, 2026: New Jersey cert petition No. 26-299 docketed; Kalshi response due 2026-11-09.Source, primary source, Apr 6, 2026
- Sixth Circuit: KalshiEX LLC v. Schuler, Nos. 26-3196/5235 (6th Cir. Sept. 25, 2026)Kalshi has not shown that its sports-event contracts are "swaps"; alternatively, the CEA "neither expressly nor impliedly preempts" Ohio's or Tennessee's gambling laws.Oct 9, 2026: Kalshi petitioned for rehearing en banc.Source, primary source, Sep 25, 2026
- Ninth Circuit: KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad, No. 25-7516 (9th Cir. Aug. 28, 2026)Affirmed the dissolution of Kalshi's injunction against Nevada as to sports event contracts, relying in part on 17 C.F.R. § 40.11(a); remanded on election contracts.Sep 9, 2026: Kalshi petitioned for rehearing en banc (No. 25-7516); mandate held. Robinhood (No. 26-338) and Crypto.com (No. 26-344) cert petitions pending.Source, primary source, Aug 28, 2026
Supreme Court petitions
3 dockets
- No. 26-299: Flaherty v. KalshiEX LLCBelow: 3d Cir. No. 25-1922 (6 Apr 2026). NJ petition docketed 8 Sept 2026; the docket page read 2026-10-16 shows the response due 8 Oct 2026 (the brief read 9 Nov: the page governs).Docket, supremecourt.gov
- No. 26-338: Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Hendrick (Nevada)Below: 9th Cir. No. 25-7831 (28 Aug 2026). Filed 10 Sept, docketed 14 Sept 2026; response due 14 Oct 2026.Docket, supremecourt.gov
- No. 26-344: Crypto.com / North American Derivatives Exchange v. Hendrick (Nevada)Below: 9th Cir. No. 25-7187 (28 Aug 2026). Filed 11 Sept, docketed 15 Sept 2026; response due 15 Oct 2026.Docket, supremecourt.gov
Proposed and interim final rules, 9 Oct 2026
not in the Federal Register as of Oct 16, 2026
- CFTC NPRM, Further Definition of "Swap" -- Inclusions (event contracts, including sports, politics, cultural and weather events)Proposes Reg. 1.3 Swap (2)(i)(G) naming event contracts as swaps, restates DCM-only retail access and the Commission's position that Rule 40.11 gives no basis for state gambling law to reach them; proposed, not adopted.not published as of 2026-10-16 (Federal Register API and public-inspection desk read that day); 30-day comment period runs from publicationSource, cftc.gov
- CFTC Interim Final Rule excluding casino-style gambling products of state- and tribal-licensed operators from the definition of swapSportsbook wagers and casino games offered by state- or tribal-licensed operators are not swaps: a platform offering casino-style products as event contracts is outside the exclusion and inside state gaming law.not published as of 2026-10-16; effective on Federal Register publication with 30-day commentsSource, cftc.gov
CFTC suits against states
9 states
- Wisconsin, filed Apr 2026
- Arizona, filed Apr 2, 2026
- Connecticut, filed Apr 2, 2026
- Illinois, filed Apr 2, 2026
- New York, filed Apr 24, 2026
- New Mexico, filed May 19, 2026
- Minnesota, filed May 19, 2026
- Rhode Island, filed May 28, 2026
- Kentucky, filed Jun 23, 2026
Information, not legal advice. It reports what the sources say; it does not apply them to any product. Counsel review is pending on every record.